Local Care Market Composition Assessment – Trends and Geographical Disparities
Background
Background
Project Leads: Prof Shereen Hussein and Prof Matt Sutton
Research staff: Keyi Li
The UK Government’s upcoming 10-Year Health Plan aims to help people remain independent for longer by shifting care away from hospitals and care homes and into community settings. Home-based care is often associated with more personalised care, greater dignity, and improved choice.
While this is a national priority, it remains unclear how much progress has been made at the local level. We do not yet know whether the shift away from care homes has been consistent across England, or if some areas have seen more change than others.
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This research aims to understand the balance between home care and care home provision across England, and which local factors might influence these differences.
Specific objectives include:- Describe how the quantity and types of home care and care home providers, alongside the number of service users, changed across local authorities between 2014 and 2024.
- Compare the distribution of care across different areas in 2024, including the number of providers, bed capacity, and occupancy levels.
- Explore how local factors—such as deprivation, population health, and demographics—affect the balance between home care and residential care.
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We will draw on trusted national datasets, including the Care Quality Commission (CQC) and the Capacity Tracker, to understand where and how social care services are delivered, and for whom, across England. These datasets will then be linked with information about the local areas and their populations, such as social structures and health outcomes.
We will look at changes in these areas and across different social care providers over time (2014–2024) and examine how these vary across different areas and demographic groups.
We will look at the provision of care services across the country in 2024 and investigate how this varies between regions.
We will use advanced statistical techniques to explore if, and how, factors such as local poverty levels, population characteristics, and health needs influence the likelihood of individuals receiving care at home versus in a care home.
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This research supports current policy goals to expand home-based care and reduce reliance on care homes. It will examine whether the current provision of care across different regions aligns with these goals. The findings will be especially useful for decision-makers in the Department of Health and Social Care, local councils, and the Care Quality Commission. We will share our findings through reports, research papers, and events with policymakers, working closely with the Department of Health and Social Care to ensure the findings are useful and actionable. We also plan to engage with the public and people who use care services; to hear their views and make sure our work reflects their experiences and priorities.